What will 2017 be like

Designer to join our in-house design team for market leading digital content, magazines and events. Graphic and Motion Designer. Graphic designer. Creative Manager. Creative Artworker. Jobs in unpredictable environments—occupations such as gardeners, plumbers, or providers of child- and eldercare—will also generally see less automation by , because they are technically difficult to automate and often command relatively lower wages, which makes automation a less attractive business proposition.

Workers displaced by automation are easily identified, while new jobs that are created indirectly from technology are less visible and spread across different sectors and geographies.

We model some potential sources of new labor demand that may spur job creation to , even net of automation. For the first three trends, we model only a trendline scenario based on current spending and investment trends observed across countries.

The effects of these new consumers will be felt not just in the countries where the income is generated but also in economies that export to these countries.

Globally, we estimate that million to million new jobs could be created from the impact of rising incomes on consumer goods alone, with up to an additional 50 million to 85 million jobs generated from higher health and education spending. By , there will be at least million more people aged 65 years and older than there were in As people age, their spending patterns shift, with a pronounced increase in spending on healthcare and other personal services. This will create significant new demand for a range of occupations, including doctors, nurses, and health technicians but also home-health aides, personal-care aides, and nursing assistants in many countries.

Globally, we estimate that healthcare and related jobs from aging could grow by 50 million to 85 million by Jobs related to developing and deploying new technologies may also grow.

Overall spending on technology could increase by more than 50 percent between and About half would be on information-technology services. The number of people employed in these occupations is small compared to those in healthcare or construction, but they are high-wage occupations. By , we estimate that this trend could create 20 million to 50 million jobs globally. For the next three trends, we model both a trendline scenario and a step-up scenario that assumes additional investments in some areas, based on explicit choices by governments, business leaders, and individuals to create additional jobs.

Infrastructure and buildings are two areas of historic underspending that may create significant additional labor demand if action is taken to bridge infrastructure gaps and overcome housing shortages. New demand could be created for up to 80 million jobs in the trendline scenario and, in the event of accelerated investment, up to million more in the step-up scenario.

These jobs include architects, engineers, electricians, carpenters, and other skilled tradespeople, as well as construction workers. Investments in renewable energy , such as wind and solar; energy-efficiency technologies; and adaptation and mitigation of climate change may create new demand for workers in a range of occupations, including manufacturing, construction, and installation. These investments could create up to ten million new jobs in the trendline scenario and up to ten million additional jobs globally in the step-up scenario.

The last trend we consider is the potential to pay for services that substitute for currently unpaid and primarily domestic work. This so-called marketization of previously unpaid work is already prevalent in advanced economies, and rising female workforce participation worldwide could accelerate the trend. We estimate that this could create 50 million to 90 million jobs globally, mainly in occupations such as childcare, early-childhood education, cleaning, cooking, and gardening.

When we look at the net changes in job growth across all countries, the categories with the highest percentage job growth net of automation include the following:. The changes in net occupational growth or decline imply that a very large number of people may need to shift occupational categories and learn new skills in the years ahead. The shift could be on a scale not seen since the transition of the labor force out of agriculture in the early s in the United States and Europe, and more recently in in China.

Seventy-five million to million may need to switch occupational categories and learn new skills. We estimate that between million and million individuals could be displaced by automation and need to find new jobs by around the world, based on our midpoint and earliest that is, the most rapid automation adoption scenarios. New jobs will be available, based on our scenarios of future labor demand and the net impact of automation, as described in the next section.

However, people will need to find their way into these jobs. Of the total displaced, 75 million to million may need to switch occupational categories and learn new skills, under our midpoint and earliest automation adoption scenarios; under our trendline adoption scenario, however, this number would be very small—less than 10 million Exhibit 1.

In absolute terms, China faces the largest number of workers needing to switch occupations—up to million if automation is adopted rapidly, or 12 percent of the workforce. While that may seem like a large number, it is relatively small compared with the tens of millions of Chinese who have moved out of agriculture in the past 25 years. For advanced economies, the share of the workforce that may need to learn new skills and find work in new occupations is much higher: up to one-third of the workforce in the United States and Germany, and nearly half in Japan.

Today there is a growing concern about whether there will be enough jobs for workers, given potential automation. History would suggest that such fears may be unfounded: over time, labor markets adjust to changes in demand for workers from technological disruptions, although at times with depressed real wages Exhibit 2.

We address this question about the future of work through two different sets of analyses: one based on modeling of a limited number of catalysts of new labor demand and automation described earlier, and one using a macroeconomic model of the economy that incorporates the dynamic interactions among variables. If history is any guide, we could also expect that 8 to 9 percent of labor demand will be in new types of occupations that have not existed before.

Christina Narayan of Colorado Springs has taught online for five years, even though she has never been to Branson. Some experts agree, saying students can get more one-on-one attention than they would in a traditional classroom.

In China, more and more parents are stretching their thin budgets to find intensive personal tutoring for children as young as 3 years old. At a learning center in Shanghai, 3-year-old boys line up to have their fingerprints scanned into a computer. Water, water anywhere? All that change points to what some analysts fear could is the triumph of the consumer society. Australia is in the midst of another searing summer drought.

Biofacturing — growing organs and skyscrapers: Perhaps the single most disruptive change will follow developments in genetic engineering, as bacteria, algae and other cells become the factories of tomorrow. Today, companies like Beyond Meat and Memphis Meats are perfecting deathless protein. Imagine a guilt-free steak with beneficial omega 3 fatty acids in lieu of cholesterol. Ads — a necessary evil: Someone has to pay for all of this change, and it is still going to be us in the form of targeted advertising.

You will be more connected than ever before, though advertisers will find clever ways to influence your behaviour, based on the same biometric technology that monitors your health. Today, we have wearable devices that can detect magnetic north and give a SONAR-like capability useful for the visually impaired.

Eventually, our descendants will be unrecognizable. Change may arrive as a gentle breeze or as a violent, category 5 typhoon. Geographies that embrace change will enter a new age of prosperity. They will create the jobs of the future. New household names will emerge and new titans of industry will be celebrated.

Those that cannot embrace change will stumble. Some countries have homegrown movements that are hostile to science. They fight battles of the last century, engaged in recriminations of past wrongs.

They politicize science while mired in debt and financial and political paralysis. It is not hard to predict the long-term results of such actions.